THE recent skirmish at Scarborough Shoal, where Chinese Air Force aircraft allegedly dropped flares in the path of a Philippine Air Force NC-212i plane, is a significant and alarming event in the ongoing maritime tensions and disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) between the Philippines and China.
It’s important to note that the Scarborough Shoal is not just a piece of land but a hotly contested area. Under China’s de facto control, it remains a battleground of competing claims, particularly between China and the Philippines. The current situation traces back to a standoff in 2012 between Chinese and Philippine vessels over fishing rights in the area. This confrontation ended with China gaining de facto control over the shoal despite its being within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Since then, Chinese maritime and coast guard vessels have maintained a presence at the shoal, effectively controlling access to the area.
Both countries have claimed Scarborough Shoal. China asserts historical rights and sovereignty over the area. At the same time, the Philippines bases its claim on its proximity to the shoal and its location within the country’s EEZ, as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Indeed, the situation at Scarborough Shoal is emblematic of the broader SCS disputes between the Philippines, China and other claimant states. This area in the SCS has undoubtedly been a flash point in Sino-Philippine relations, with both countries having their respective claims.
Risk of escalation and tensions
The recent skirmish at Scarborough Shoal no doubt has profound implications for the SCS’ already tense geopolitical landscape. This incident exacerbates tensions between China and the Philippines, further straining their already fragile diplomatic relationship. The deteriorating political and diplomatic ties between the two nations are unlikely to benefit from such confrontations, which only serve to deepen mistrust, misunderstanding and animosity.
More broadly, this skirmish underscores the risks to regional security in the SCS, a critical maritime artery. An increase in military activity, particularly involving direct confrontations like this, poses a significant threat to the region’s stability. The most immediate and pressing danger lies in the potential for escalation. Close military encounters heighten the risk of accidents or misjudgments, which could quickly escalate into a more serious conflict. Misinterpretations of intentions on either side could lead to a broader military engagement, especially if the incident results in fatalities or significant damage. This scenario highlights the delicate and volatile nature of the situation in the SCS, where the stakes are incredibly high.
The skirmish could also draw external powers deeper into the conflict, particularly the United States. With the US bound by a Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, any significant escalation could prompt an enhanced US military presence in the region, exacerbating the Americans’ ongoing militarization of the Philippines. In fact, this process is already under way, which could trigger an arms race across Southeast Asia as nations bolster their defense capabilities in response. Such developments risk destabilizing the region further, heightening the prospects for future conflicts.
From China’s perspective, such actions are likely viewed as a critical affirmation of its sovereignty over what it deems its territory. By deploying aircraft and flares, China is signaling its unwavering resolve to maintain control over Scarborough Shoal and deter any perceived challenges to its authority and claimed sovereignty over the area. Using flares in this recent incident can be seen as a calculated deterrence strategy intended to dissuade Philippine aircraft or vessels from near the shoal. This approach underscores China’s resolve to reinforce its control, clearly conveying that any attempt to contest its presence will be met with a decisive and forceful response.
Curious move
Nevertheless, it is indeed puzzling why the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. would choose to engage in such a high-risk and provocative action, where a Philippine Air Force aircraft deliberately entered the airspace over Scarborough Shoal — especially considering that the shoal is under de facto Chinese control. The Chinese response to such a move from the Philippines was predictably swift and firm, given their established presence and assertiveness in the area.
This raises the question of whether this action was intended as a diversionary tactic aimed at shifting public attention away from the mounting domestic challenges facing the Marcos Jr. administration. The current government is under significant scrutiny, grappling with a host of allegations and controversies, including claims that the President is allegedly involved in illegal substance use, accusations of underlying latent corruption and the recent uproar over the government’s decision to transfer around P90 billion of PhilHealth’s excess funds to the national treasury. This action has sparked considerable concern among health care professionals, lawmakers and labor groups.
Additionally, the administration faces criticism over the so-called 5,500 flood control projects, which have come under fire following Typhoon Carina’s devastation. The storm left much of Metro Manila and other parts of Luzon submerged despite significant funding amounting to billions or trillions of pesos allocated to these projects. The country’s deteriorating peace and order situation, high inflation, low wages and the troubling report from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showing that net foreign direct investments hit a 16-month low in May further compound the administration’s difficulties.
Given these domestic pressures, one might wonder if the decision to provoke China at Scarborough Shoal was an attempt to deflect attention from these critical internal domestic issues. The timing and nature of this action certainly invite curious speculation.
Likewise, it’s worth considering whether the Philippines’ recent provocative action in Scarborough Shoal is a strategic move designed to sway Congress into a heightened sense of urgency regarding the military budget. With the national budget currently under deliberation, the tension surrounding the SCS could be leveraged as a compelling justification for increasing military spending and funding. This raises the question of whether the timing of this incident was intended to underscore the lobby for an increase in defense and military budget using the SCS dispute as justification.
Conclusion
The skirmish over Scarborough Shoal is a significant development with far-reaching implications. It highlights the inherently volatile nature of territorial and maritime disputes in the SCS, underscoring the complex challenges that both the Philippines and China face in managing these disputes peacefully and diplomatically. The need to maintain peace, security and stability in the SCS is critical for the region and the broader international community.
The gravity of this dispute cannot be understated. How the Philippines and China navigate their interactions and respond to each other’s actions in the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of their relationship and the overall stability of the SCS.
Hence, this situation highlights the urgent need for careful, strategic diplomatic management to avoid an unintentional slide into conflict and preserve the region’s peace and stability. Additionally, the continued instability in the SCS could have significant economic repercussions, potentially disrupting vital shipping routes and impacting global trade. Given the SCS’ importance as a major corridor for international commerce, any escalation into conflict could have far-reaching economic consequences.
Source: The Manila Times
https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/08/17/opinion/columns/was-recent-skirmish-at-scarborough-shoal-a-calculated-diversionary-tactic/1964592
